A panel of experts advising the federal government on climate policy says Canada should at minimum cut its carbon emissions in half by 2035.
The Net Zero Advisory Body is calling on the government to amp up its ambitions and slash climate-cooking emissions by up to 55 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035.
The federal government’s current goal is to cut emissions by up to 45 per cent by 2030.
The advice comes as the federal government prepares to set a new legally binding climate target for 2035 under the country’s Net Zero Emission Accountability Act. The new target is expected to be released in December.
The advisory body said it considered setting targets as high as 60 per cent but settled on a range of 50 to 55 per cent.
In a report released today, the the Net Zero Advisory Body says that range would be technically and economically feasible.
The report also suggests that target would ensure Canada doesn’t fall too far behind other major economies like the U.S., the European Union and the U.K.
The U.K.’s 2035 emissions reduction target is 74 per cent below 2005 levels.
The Net Zero Advisory Body says it developed its latest recommendation to reflect Canada’s obligations under the landmark 2015 international Paris Agreement climate pact.
That agreement states countries must keep the increase in the planet’s temperature to well below 2 C and work to limit it to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.
Although countries have made progress, the UN has said the world is still on track to surpass the limits outlined in the Paris Agreement, leading to more devastating flooding, heat waves and forest fires.
Some of those impacts could be avoided if countries limit pollution from burning fossil fuels.
The earth’s atmosphere acts like a blanket. Burning fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases, which add another layer to that blanket. Adding too many layers will cause the planet to overheat.
Scientists know the volume of greenhouse gases humans have emitted to date and how much more can be released before the planet overheats.
Countries like the U.K., France, and New Zealand have quantified the amount of greenhouse gases they can emit while complying with the Paris Agreement.
Panel calls for a ‘carbon budget’
Thursday’s report recommends that Canada do the same by developing what it calls a carbon budget.
“Like a household budget, a carbon budget can help ensure we ‘only spend what we can afford’ by tracking our emissions ‘expenses’ and allocating them based on the remaining greenhouse gas emissions in the budget,” the report says.
“Canada is one of the highest emitting countries in the world … [and] we are not a big country in terms of population,” said the advisory body’s co-chair, climate scientist Simon Donner.
“When you think of that, Canada has already consumed our fair share of the carbon budget.”
Canada is among the world’s top 20 emitters. Together, they are responsible for more than 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the United Nations.
According to one estimate, Canada was the 12th largest global emitter in absolute and per capita terms in 2022, even though the country ranked 37th in terms of population.
The report acknowledges that even with the proposed 2035 target, Canada will exceed its fair share of emissions based on its carbon budget.
The report calls for additional measures to make up the shortfall, like carbon dioxide removal through planting trees and direct air capture technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere.
Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault would not tell CBC News whether he plans to adopt the advisory body’s proposed climate target. Guilbeault said that in crafting the new target, he is weighing a new climate goal that is ambitious but realistic.
“I’m not a big fan of setting targets where we have no idea how we will get there,” he said. “I think it is counterproductive, and then it discourages people because we can’t get there.”
Modelling produced by Guilbeault’s department says that Canada is still on track to meet its 2026 climate target but not its 2030 one.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s latest modelling shows Canada could reduce its emissions by 36 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
Another report from the climate advisory body said Canada could close the gap if it adopts some additional measures and focuses on strengthening existing policies.
“Build on what’s there rather than trying to tear things down and starting from scratch because of the time lag impact that would have an effect on our ability to reach our targets,” Donner said.