Parliamentarians return for the fall sitting today after a heated summer drastically altered the dynamics in the House of Commons.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be leading an unstable minority government in the wake of last week’s announcement by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to end the supply-and-confidence agreement that had ensured the Liberal government’s survival for more than two years.
This leaves the Liberal government on shakier ground heading into the fall sitting, since it can’t rely on the NDP’s support to prop it up on confidence votes.
Here’s what you can expect as MPs return to a minority-led government under a new political landscape:
Poilievre says he will trigger non-confidence vote
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says his party will put forward a non-confidence motion “at the earliest possible opportunity” in an effort to trigger a federal election.
And he’s demanding the NDP support the motion to prove that the move to tear up the deal with Liberals was not just a meaningless “stunt.”
“Canadians cannot wait. They need to vote now for common sense Conservatives, and Jagmeet Singh needs to vote with us to trigger a carbon tax election now,” Poilievre said in an address to his caucus on Sunday.
A party can only continue governing as long as it has the confidence of the House — that is, the support of a majority of MPs.
Though the NDP has pulled out of its deal with the Liberals, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will vote non-confidence and trigger an election anytime soon. So far, the NDP has given no sign it wants to send Canadians to polls right now.
Speaking in Ottawa on Wednesday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said it’s up to Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to ‘put their actions where their words are’ and vote non-confidence in Justin Trudeau at the ‘earliest possible’ time.
A ‘window of opportunity’ for the Bloc
The fall sitting will open up new dynamics in the House, with the Bloc Québécois saying it’s ready to take on the balance of power.
The Bloc says it’s ready to negotiate with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party for support during confidence votes.
The torn-up Liberal-NDP deal has created a ‘window of opportunity’ for the Quebec-based sovereigntist party, says Bloc House leader Alain Therrian. He told reporters last week that he’s already drawn up a list of demands.
Christine Normandin, the Bloc’s deputy House leader, told CBC’s Power & Politics last week that her party was “waiting on a call” from the Liberals.
“It gives us back some power,” Normandin said. “We’ll have more room to make requests and make gains for Quebec … and those requests will have to be heard if the government wants to stay in place.”
One of the Bloc’s stipulations is gaining royal recommendation to its Bill C-319, which aims to increase pensions for seniors aged 65 to 74 to the same level paid to those 75 and older, she said.
The Bloc Québécois now has ‘more room to negotiate’ with the Liberal government on funding for seniors and immigration powers for Quebec after the NDP ended its supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals, Bloc deputy House leader Christine Normandin tells Power & Politics.
A crucial byelection for the Liberals
On the same day Parliament returns, the Liberals face a crucial test for support in a key byelection.
The Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun has long been a Liberal stronghold. The neighbourhood was represented by former prime minister Paul Martin for two decades.
Now, polls show a three-way race for the seat between the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP.
“The fact that this is in the prime minister’s backyard and they’re fighting for it, I think tells you everything you need to know about where Liberals support is across the country,” David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, said Sunday on Rosemary Barton Live.
Chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton speaks with poll and election analysts David Coletto and Éric Grenier about the upcoming byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg.
It will be a “devastating loss” for the Liberals if they can’t pull off the win, said Coletto, pointing to the party’s byelection loss in Toronto—St. Paul’s over the summer.
The shocking loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s — a riding the party had held for more than 30 years — prompted a lot of questions and concerns among Liberal MPs who interpreted the result as a rebuke of their leader, Trudeau.
Despite growing calls from within his own party to step down, Trudeau has maintained that he will see this election through.
Another key byelection loss could heighten questions about “what’s left” of the Liberal party, said Coletto.