But this is all just speculation. “We don’t have any hard evidence,” trustee Lyra said. “It’s hard to do a survey of people who don’t come to your schools.”
Meanwhile, there were demographic pockets where enrolment growth was lower than expected at both the Catholic and the public boards.
Preliminary OCDSB figures released in early October found 750 fewer kindergarten enrolments than expected. The Catholic board’s numbers showed that, while kindergarten enrolments had increased by 323 this year, that was still 173 fewer kindergarten students than projected.
Trustee Lyra believes some parents are opting to keep their children at home or in an alternative private schools for the early years. Small private schools, often with only a few dozen students, have proliferated in recent years, she notes.
School boards are required to submit annual enrolment estimates to Ontario’s Ministry of Education by the end of June, with revisions after the start of school in September, when planning and human resources departments compare the projected numbers with staffing plans made the previous spring.
When enrolments are lower than expected, teachers and students are shuffled at schools with low enrolment, sometimes resulting in split and combined classes and education workers being moved to other classes or schools. Final enrolment figures are sent to the Ministry of Education at the end of October.
Most provincial funding is tied directly to average daily enrolment, known as ADE. Last year, the funding gap between expected growth in enrolment and actual enrolment at the OCDSB was $15 million on a total budget of $1.1 billion.
The OCDSB’s stagnating enrolment is a concern to trustees.
“We’re seeing inflationary pressures. When you have less students, you have less money,” trustee Lyra said. “The chronic underfunding will drive parents to the private school system.”
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In October, after preliminary enrolment figures were released, trustee Cathryne Milburn urged board staff to learn more about why families didn’t enrol in the OCDSB.
“I’m worried that this is going to be a trend, and I think we need to get ahead of it as best we can,” Milburn said. “I understand that we can’t magically appear in people’s houses and ask then why they didn’t enrol in OCDSB. But I think we have to put some thinking into how we’re going to reach out to figure out why people don’t enrol.”
Enrolment can also be a moving target as the year moves on. At the OCDSB last year, student enrolment in early October 2023 was about 1,600 students lower than projected. By January, the gap between projected and actual enrolment had narrowed to about 700 students.
Projected enrolment is based on factors such as immigration, new housing and a school board’s “market share” compared to other boards. The OCDSB’s projections tended to be very accurate until the COVID-19 pandemic hit, trustee Lyra said.
“We’ve missed the last couple of years. Maybe we have to figure out the new baseline, or make the formula better.”
Asked for comment on its numbers, the CECCE attributed its “remarkable” growth to a nurturing environment and innovative pedagogy.
For example, some CECCE schools operate under the “balanced school year” schedule, in which part of the summer vacation time off is spread throughout the year. The frequent breaks help students maintain a consistent learning pace, the CECCE says.
“In a context where some school boards are facing recruitment challenges, we are delighted to see that our efforts to offer a quality education and an environment focused on well-being, equity, and inclusion, have earned the trust of parents and are reflected in this positive growth,” the CECCE said in a statement.
“We are particularly proud of our diverse, inclusive, and vibrant francophone school community, which continues to grow and thrive.”
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