Article content
The National Capital Commission is installing its skating huts along the Rideau Canal Skateway. But will anyone get to use them?
The answer from Environment Canada: a definite “probably.”
“We’ve had two consecutive years now of considerably warmer than normal temperatures,” said Peter Kimbell, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada.
Article content
“All I can say is probably we will not get a repeat of last winter. Therefore, for those who are hoping for snow and cold temperatures to skate on the Canal, it’s probably a good bet that we’ll be able to do so.”
Last year’s skating season lasted just 10 days along a shortened section from Bank Street to near the University of Ottawa campus. It was the second shortest season since the skateway opened in 1970-71, but still better than the season before, when, for the first time in more than half a century, it never opened at all.
January and February temperatures in Ottawa were above normal in both 2022 and 2023, Kimbell said, but the sad fact is that predicting weather months in advance is impossible.
“That’s why the forecasts you see on our website are for seven days and not 30 days,” he said. “Our forecasts are getting better, but, after a week or 10 days, they decline markedly.
“Seasonal forecasts is still a science in its infancy. There’s still a long way to go before we can be even reasonably confident in them.”
Not even the famous El Nina or La Nina that form in the equatorial Pacific when sea surface temperatures are above or below average, respectively, tell us much about the coming winter, he said.
Article content
“People like to look at certain indices such as El Nina or La Nina as a predictor, but it’s far more complicated than that. It certainly plays a role, but there are many other factors,” Kimbell said.
In any event, measurements of ocean temperature are currently “neutral.”
“There are forecasts that La Nina will emerge this fall, but it hasn’t yet. Even if it does, the linkage between La Nina and El Nina and the weather in Ontario, and especially eastern Ontario, is pretty weak. And, when it’s neutral, there’s nothing to hang your hat on anyway.”
Since opening, the Rideau Canal Skateway has averaged about 50 days of skating, with the record of 95 days set in its inaugural year. Dec. 18 was its earliest opening in both 1971 and 1981. In recent years, the skateway was open for 71 days in 2018-19, from Dec. 30 to March 10.
OK. What about the ski season? Will there be snow?
Kimbell shrugged.
“There’s just no way of knowing. One big storm will skew the numbers hugely and there’s no way of predicting that because that one big storm doesn’t even exist yet,” he said.
“There’s really no good predictors of precipitation. And, of course, if the temperatures are above normal, we’ll get more rain than usual, and, if they’re below normal, we’ll get more snow than usual. There’s no clear answers and, unfortunately, that’s just the way it is.”
Not that that stops the Farmer’s Almanac. For winter 2025, it has gone out on a limb forecasting “a season of rain and snow with not much downtime,” with the coldest weather predicted to occur at the end of January and the beginning of February.
That, too, seems like a good bet.
Our website is your destination for up-to-the-minute news, so make sure to bookmark our homepage and sign up for our newsletters so we can keep you informed.
Recommended from Editorial
Share this article in your social network