Members of Parliament will cast their first confidence vote of the fall sitting on Wednesday, but with it poised to fail, political posturing is already ramping up over future tests of the Liberal minority government.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is back in Ottawa and expected to be in the House of Commons for the vote, which is scheduled for after question period.
The test of his Liberal government was brought through a Conservative opposition day motion, tabled by Official Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Writing on social media this morning, Poilievre set up the vote as a choice “to give Canadians the carbon tax election they want.”
The question MPs are being asked to vote on this afternoon is brief: do they agree that “the House has no confidence in the Prime Minister and the government”?
MPs spent the better part of Tuesday debating the non-confidence motion.
During the debate, Conservatives urged their colleagues not to make Canadians wait for change. The parties opposing the proposal voiced concerns about what Poilievre would do as prime minister.
The Bloc Quebecois and NDP have already said they won’t support the motion, stating they aren’t yet ready to help Poilievre force Canadians into an early election, which polling indicates the Conservatives would likely win.
Because those parties hold the balance of power in this minority Parliament, the prime minister is expected to have the votes he needs to maintain the confidence of the House and continue governing.
The same outcome is also expected later in the day Wednesday, when the Liberals are set to advance a second motion that they’ve deemed a matter of confidence.
They’re planning to call a vote on a “Ways and Means Motion” — essentially granting the government the approval to table a spending bill — connected to post-consultation changes to the capital gains policy.
This measure is tied to the Liberals’ last budget, and as it’s primarily a bill about collecting and spending Canadians’ money, it’s being treated as a matter of confidence. That vote is expected after 5 p.m. EDT this evening.
Bloc gives Liberals one month to act
Without the parliamentary pact that saw the NDP prop them up on confidence votes, the minority Liberals are set to face a series of further motions to bring them down in the days ahead.
Both NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet have indicated a desire to try to first leverage their votes for policy action before playing a part in toppling Trudeau.
Though this morning, Blanchet essentially gave the government an ultimatum, and a one-month deadline to commit to his demands.
He said Trudeau has until Oct. 29 to agree to help pass and enact a pair of Bloc-originated bills — one regarding seniors’ pensions and the other involving supply management protections — or he’ll start talking to the other parties about taking Trudeau’s government down.
When asked by reporters on Tuesday what he makes of Blanchet’s deadline, Health Minister Mark Holland said he’d prefer to focus on “policy conversations.”
“I think every proposal that’s made is something that is considered,” he said. “But I don’t think it’s helpful to issue ultimatums. I think that what is helpful is to demonstrate that Parliament is focused on Canadians and not politics.”
Yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said conversations were “ongoing” with both the Bloc and the NDP about their requests for policy action.
Today, Blanchet seemed to pour could water on the state of those talks.
“It is a friendly specialty of the Liberals to say that they are having discussions and that everybody is their close friends,” he said on Wednesday. “So far there’s been very little discussions. And as you see, there’s not so much room for discussion.”
The next high-stakes vote may come early next week. The Liberals have assigned the Conservatives their second opposition day of the sitting this Thursday, with the vote scheduled for the following Tuesday.
Poilievre has given the House notice of a pair of potential motions he could present for debate. One quotes Singh and Blanchet and their respective criticisms of the Liberals. The other focuses on Poilievre’s central critiques of the government’s handling of housing, taxes, and crime.
And both include variations of wording indicating the House has lost confidence in the government.
Reacting to the looming high-stakes questions, Government House Leader Karina Gould accused the Conservatives of “playing games.”
“I think it’s pretty lame that they’re going to put forward another non-confidence vote tomorrow, basically the same thing that they did just hours before,” Gould said. “But I think it shows the desperation of Mr. Poilievre.”
The Bloc and NDP will also have one opposition day each before the winter break.
When asked by reporters whether he thinks the Liberals will remain in power until next October’s fixed election date — even if they give in to the Bloc’s demands — Blanchet said he wouldn’t bet on it.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
With files from CTV News’ Spencer Van Dyk